The American Dream of leaving home, getting a job, and building a life is increasingly becoming a distant memory for many men. A recent study highlights a concerning trend: more non-college-educated men are living at home and falling out of the labor market, thanks to rising rents and a decline in marriages. This phenomenon is particularly harmful to men without a college degree, who are already at a disadvantage in the job market.
The study, conducted by Gabrielle Penrose, a graduate student fellow at the American Institute for Boys and Men, analyzed six decades of U.S. Census data. It found a direct correlation between rising housing costs and the decline in male labor force participation. Since 1960, real rents in the United States have skyrocketed by 150%, while wages for men without college degrees have stagnated due to automation, globalization, and the decline of manufacturing. This has led to a situation where more men are moving back in with their parents, and once there, they often stop working.
The data reveals that one in six non-college-educated men now live with their parents, compared to only 8% of college-educated men. This trend is particularly pronounced in areas with limited housing supply due to geographic constraints, such as mountains, coastlines, and lakes. In these regions, housing costs are higher not because people are earning more, but because of the physical limitations on construction. Interestingly, baby boomer parents, who are sitting on significant housing wealth, are better positioned to support their adult children, making it easier for them to move back home.
The study's findings are alarming. Men living with their parents are 20 percentage points less likely to be in the labor force compared to those living independently. A 10% increase in local rents is associated with a 0.5 percentage point decline in labor force participation. Initial estimates suggest that housing costs could explain around a third of the total employment decline among non-college-educated men. This is especially concerning, as one in five non-college-educated men in their early thirties live with their parents, and the rate remains elevated into their forties.
The decline in marriage rates is also a significant factor. With women outnumbering men in the workforce for the third time in history, and women earning more than men, the traditional values of marriage are changing. Many younger men, especially those without a college degree, are finding it financially burdensome to afford housing, leading them to live at home with their parents. This shift in marriage patterns is a 'sleeper issue' that underlies the findings of the study.
The implications of this trend are far-reaching. As men fall out of the labor market, it contributes to a declining labor force participation rate, which is already at a low of 61.5%. This not only affects the men themselves but also has broader economic consequences. Economists are concerned about the long-term impact of this trend, predicting real-world consequences for years to come. The challenge now is to address the underlying issues, such as rising housing costs and changing marriage patterns, to support these men and ensure their economic well-being.
